SUBTOPIC 12.1: IRAQ A FAILED STATE?

ON THE GROUND IN IRAQ AFTER NEARLY A DECADE OF CONFLICT

All over Iraq, many people are fed up with the lack of basic services and jobs, political corruption, and the regional powers which seem to have more influence over the people’s destinies than the people themselves do. They possess a deep, lingering bitterness about what invasion and nine years of U.S. presence in Iraq has created (Rewind, 2018). The Iraqi people fear the prime minister, and specifically his expansive grip on power. They fear the government’s security forces (Mukhabarat), the armed groups of sectarian politics, and regional power struggles. They fear that the “ghosts of the past will never stop haunting the present” (Rewind, 2018). Even more horrifying, all of this distress took place before the rise of DAESH in Iraq. From 2006-2008, Iraq was at a breaking point, dangerously close to a civil war between the Sunnis and the Shiites (Rewind, 2018). By 2012, the Americans were leaving Iraq, the AQI (Al-Qaeda in Iraq) had been defeated, and DAESH began to form. Much of the recent conflict in Iraq has centered around DAESH. According to Brown (2018), “there is no DAESH without the fall of Iraq… DAESH emerge[d] from former Iraqi soldiers mixing with AQI”, and was originally led by the Jordanian Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. Today, the number of IDPs (Internally Displaced Persons) in Iraq is over 3 million, and the Iraqi government has been a big part of the problem (Rewind, 2018). The living conditions of these 3 million people are severely bad. Many of these people are taken through screening procedures where families are separated. Many of them are arrested under suspicions of collaborating with DAESH. Tens of thousands of Iraqi citizens have been arrested in the last few years with no due process and no access to legal guidance (Rewind, 2018). These arrests have mostly been made based on tips form informants. As if that weren’t enough, the reconstruction effort which has been promised to the citizens by the government has not even started. Much of the infrastructure of Iraq is devastated after nearly a decade of conflict. Babies are being born with horrific birth defects, and many are dying (likely from the chemical residue left behind by American warfare) (Rewind, 2018).

THE STATIS OF THE POLITICAL SYSTEM IN IRAQ: THE STATE’S INABILITY TO MAINTAIN ORDER AND PROVIDE THE BASIC FUNCTIONS OF A STATE

When the Americans pulled out of Iraq in 2012, Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki began to intensify his efforts to consolidate his power among the Shia majority, thus marginalizing the Sunni minority. This led to massive Sunni protests, and a surge of sectarian killings became the new normal in Iraq. According to Vice, “in 2012 alone, there were more than 1,600 deaths” (2013). Doostdar elaborates on this, stating that “in the sectarian bloodshed that engulfed Iraq after the U.S. invasion, beheadings by Sunni insurgents turned into a morbid form of reciprocity with Shi‘a militiamen who bore holes into their victims using power drills” (2014). Despite the fact that Saddam Hussein was a brutal dictator, many Iraqis today find themselves missing the stability of his regime. Hundreds of the checkpoints established by the U.S. military during their occupation of Iraq are still in use today in order to check for car bombs (Vice, 2013). Every street in every major area has a checkpoint. Unfortunately, much of the technology that the Iraqi soldiers use at these checkpoints is largely overpriced and ineffective (Vice, 2013). Many Iraqis believe that their political leaders “perpetrate conflicts for their own collective and personal benefits, while ignoring big and important issues” (Rewind, 2018). As an example, a lot of the money that was meant to help Iraq get back on its feet has either been stolen or squandered, “sometimes with deadly results” (Vice, 2013). Additionally, DAESH “has had to work with secular Ba‘athists, former army officers, tribal councils, and various Sunni opposition groups, many of whose members are in administrative positions”, which does not exactly speak well of the government (Doostdar, 2014). Doostdar also says that “CNN recently quoted former Iraqi national security adviser Muwaffaq al-Ruba‘i as claiming that in Mosul, ISIS was recruiting ‘young Iraqis as young as 8 and 9 years old with AK-47s… and brainwashing with this evil ideology'” (2014). The fact that this has all happened under the Iraqi government does not suggest that it is robust and capable of maintaining order as well as the basic functions of a state. In Mosul, many of those who joined ISIS in the summer of 2013 had been “previously imprisoned by the Iraqi government, and they numbered in the thousands and included peaceful protesters who opposed Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki’s increasingly authoritarian rule” (Doostdar, 2014). Overall, I do not believe that the Iraqi government is robust and capable of maintaining order as well as the basic functions of a state.

THE MOST PRESSING RECENT ISSUES IN IRAQ, THE PRINCIPAL PLAYERS IN THE POLITICAL SPHERE, AND THE MAY 12, 2018 ELECTIONS 

One of the most pressing recent issues in Iraq is most definitely the 3 million IDPs (Internally Displaced Persons) who are largely living in horrible conditions. Many are without electricity, sufficient food, and live in constant fear of eviction from their terrible makeshift homes (Rewind, 2018). Another pressing issue is that tens of thousands of Iraqi citizens have been arrested in the last few years with no due process and no access to legal guidance (Rewind, 2018). In addition, as previously discussed, the reconstruction effort which has been promised to the citizens by the government has not even started. Much of the infrastructure of Iraq is devastated after nearly a decade of conflict. There are countless homes without electricity, and much of the peoples’ food is being provided by foreign aid. Babies are being born with horrific birth defects, and many are dying (likely from the chemical residue left behind by American warfare) (Rewind, 2018). Many Iraqis believe that their political leaders “perpetrate conflicts for their own collective and personal benefits, while ignoring big and important issues” (Rewind, 2018). In fact, conditions are so unstable now that many Iraqis find themselves (somewhat) reminiscing about the stability of Saddam Hussein’s regime, despite his horrible dictatorship. Iraqi society is also currently facing two extremes: on one side, a very conservative, religious Islamic group, and on the other a group which attempts to copy Western society without really understanding it in the first place. This obviously leads to many conflicts (Vice, 2013). All of these are recent, pressing issues in Iraq.

The principal player in the Iraqi political sphere is Prime Minister is Haydar al-Abadi, who has been in power since 2014 (Ahram, 2017). Iraq’s President is Fuad Masum, and its major political parties include the State of Law Coalition (29%), Sadrist Movement (10%), the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (9%), the Kurdish Democratic Party (8%), the United for Reform Coalition/ Mittahidun (7%), the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (6%), the Nationalism Coalition/ al-Wataniyyah (6%), the al-Arabiyah Coalition (3%), the Fadilah (2%), the National Reform Trend (2%), the Iraq Coalition (2%), and the Kurdistan Islamic Union (1%) (Ahram, 2017).

The May 12, 2018 election in Iraq was very complex, but one thing was clear: the Iraqi people are sick of Iranian and American interference in their country (Ibish, 2018). Thanks to a 2010 court ruling, the “first crack at forming a new government does not automatically go to the electoral victor but, assuming nobody has an outright majority, to whoever can assemble the biggest post-election bloc” (Ibish, 2018). Thus, the actual results of the election could take months to discern. One possible outcome is that Moqtada al-Sadr may win a governing majority in the parliament. He is a “mercurial, hyperbolic, idealistic… and ever-changing man”, with “‘Iraq first’ rhetoric, which is simultaneously anti-American and anti-Iranian”, and “a fiery condemnation of existing politics and governance and demands for professionalism and technocrats in government, all the while lashing out at those he casts as political hacks or religious demagogues” (Ibish, 2018). Needless to say, he’s not America’s top pick. However, his win could mean a new “Iraqi government that is surprisingly independent of Tehran’s influence and open to reintegrating Iraq into the Arab world” (Ibish, 2018). On the other hand, however, an overtly pro-Tehran government could emerge if all of the pro-Iranian forces in parliament (“including the Fatah Alliance representing the sectarian Shiite militias, along with parties loyal to Abadi and former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, as well as smaller groups such as the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan”) choose to band together (Ibish, 2018). However, in a recent development, Iraq has decided to hold a manual recount of the May election results, due to Prime Minister Haydar al-Abadi’s claim that there had been serious violations during the original count (Aboulenein, 2018). This act “pits the government and parliament against the election commission, which is meant to be independent”, and has only raised further uncertainty in Iraq. Much of this uncertainty is spurred by the fact that the anti-Iranian, “Iraq First” Moqtada al-Sadr had originally won the election (Aboulenein, 2018). The prime minister’s own bloc came in third. The leadership of Iraq’s Independent High Elections Commission has been suspended by a parliamentary vote, and is to be replaced by “nine judges”, all picked by Iraq’s Supreme Judicial Council (Aboulenein, 2018). Despite the fact that the “new electronic vote counting system was introduced by IHEC on the grounds that it could reduce fraud and speed up delivery of the results”, it has been indefinitely banned, and all election results will now be processed manually (Aboulenein, 2018).

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EXTERNAL PIECE OF INFORMATION ON THE OUTCOME OF THE MAY, 2018 ELECTION (REFERENCED ABOVE, ALSO THE SOURCE OF THE PHOTOGRAPH)

Aboulenein, Ahmed. “Iraq to Hold Manual Recount of May Election Results.” Reuters, Thomson Reuters, 6 June 2018, www.reuters.com/article/us-iraq-election/iraq-to-hold-manual-recount-of-may-election-results-idUSKCN1J2228.

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How did roleplaying as a journalist affect how you approached and described the issues and how you answered the questions?

I think that roleplaying as a journalist on this particular subtopic was particularly helpful because of all of the videos (Vice, Rewind, etc.) that are associated with this Module helped me to get into the “journalist” mindset. This mindset helped me to approach and describe these issues with the voices of the Iraqi people in mind, as I heard many of them in the videos. All my life I’ve grown up hearing terrible things about places like Iraq, and this perspective helped me to see it in an entirely new light. Unfortunately, I am not too hopeful for the future of Iraq after the May 2018 elections. Before the mandatory manual recount, Ibish (2018) said that “there [was] no likelihood of an overtly anti-Iranian government in Baghdad. But there [was] a real possibility, and arguably even a likelihood, of a Sadr-led coalition that is non-Iranian in orientation. How stable that could be, and to what extent it could really contribute to the emergence of an increasingly independent Iraq not under the control of the U.S., Iran or the Arab countries, [would have remained] to be seen”. Reading this gave me hope. Then, I learned of the recount. After Sadr had already won, the sitting prime minister demanded a mandatory, manual recount, going to ridiculous lengths, likely to ensure that the current pro-Iranian government remains in power. As Vice (2018) found in their documentary, “today, Iraq is looking to the past instead of the future”. That being said, I do not think that Iraq is “doomed” to be a failed state. There is still somewhat of a promise for a stable Iraq, no matter how slim it may be. Although things are certainly not headed in a good direction right now, there is still time for the course of events to change. This is not likely, but it is not impossible.

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Aboulenein, Ahmed. “Iraq to Hold Manual Recount of May Election Results.” Reuters, Thomson Reuters, 6 June 2018, www.reuters.com/article/us-iraq-election/iraq-to-hold-manual-recount-of-may-election-results-idUSKCN1J2228.

Ahram, Ariel I. Republic of Iraq. 2017.

Brown, Dan. “IRAQ/ISLAMIC STATE (DAESH).” MENA. 2 July 2018, Norman, Oklahoma.

Doostdar, Alireza. “How Not To Understand ISIS.” Jadaliyya – جدلية, 2014, www.jadaliyya.com/Details/31296/How-Not-To-Understand-ISIS.

Ibish, Hussein. “Who Lost Iraq’s Election? Iran and America.” Bloomberg.com, Bloomberg, 25 May 2018, www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-05-25/iraq-s-election-the-u-s-lost-but-iran-lost-worse.

“Iraq after the Americans.” Rewind. Al-Jazeera English, February 9, 2018. 

“Iraq: Battle for Mosul.” 101 East. Al-Jazeera, March 30, 2017

VICE. In Saddam’s Shadow: Baghdad 10 Years After the Invasion, 2013.

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